大学生就业市场景气指数的建构与分析

利用北京大学教育经济研究所历年全国高等学校毕业生就业状况调查数据和多值倾向评分匹配的方法,构建了一个动态化、定量化、具备可比性的大学生就业市场景气测量体系。测量结果表明,大学生就业景气指数呈现上下波动的变化趋势,2003年和2009年是指数的波谷年份,2005年和2015年则是指数的波峰年份;大学生就业景气指数的跨年变动幅度平稳,且指数波动受供需两侧因素的共同影响。在分析往年大学生就业景气指数的变动趋势和影响机制后发现,近年来大学生就业景气又进入了新的下降通道,2020年全球经济萎靡、国内经济下行压力和新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情叠加影响使得高等学校毕业生就业形势更加严峻,但在政府政策干预、新经济兴起以及求职方式转变的影响下,大学生就业景气程度短期受负面影响严重,但就业率并未出现断崖式下降。

The Employment Prosperity Index for College Graduates:Construction and Analysis

This study,based on the data from the National Survey of College Graduates’ Employment Status of Peking University,and multi-valued propensity score matching,has established an employment prosperity index for college graduates,which is dynamic,quantitative,and comparable. The results show the following:The index indicated a trend of fluctuation,with 2003 and 2009 in the trough,and 2005 and 2015 at the peak;the annual change of the index was stable,and its fluctuations were affected by both supply and demand. An analysis of the changes of the index over the previous years and the factors affecting the changes reveals that the index declined over the recent years. The year 2020 witnessed the economic downturn across the globe,the downward pressure on the domestic economy,and the COVID-19 outbreak,which created a more severe situation of employment for college graduates,but affected by the government policy,the rise of new economies,and the changed job-hunting methods,the employment rate will not suffer a cliff-like drop,though it is negatively affected in a short period.