博士生规模扩张影响因素的实证研究——基于美国1980—2017年的数据

为探寻博士研究生规模扩张的影响因素,利用1980—2017年美国研究型博士培养的经验数据,构建包含博士生规模、GDP、修业年限以及导师数量的向量误差修正模型。研究结果表明:GDP和导师数量对博士生规模扩张具有促进作用,修业年限具有抑制作用,短期内修业年限的抑制作用更为强烈。结合近些年我国博士生延期毕业率超过60%的困境,建议通过调整学制、实施分流与淘汰机制以及建立良好的院系文化环境等方式缓解博士生延期毕业问题。

An Empirical Study of the Influencing Factors on the Scale Expansion of Doctoral Education: Based on US data from 1980 to 2017

To explore the influencing factors on the scale expansion of doctoral students, the authors use the empirical data from 1980 to 2017 of the American research-based doctoral education to build a vector error correction model covering four variables: doctoral student size, GDP, length of schooling, and number of supervisors. The research outcomes show that GDP and the number of supervisors have a positive promotion effect to the scale expansion of doctoral students, and the length of schooling has an inhibitory effect, which is predicted pretty strong in the short run. In view of the deferred graduation of doctoral students has exceeded 60% in recent year in China, the authors propose to adjust the length of schooling, implement regrouping and withdrawal mechanism and improve the cultural environment at universities for resolving the problems relating to deferred graduation.