| 商品市场价格的三时点预测模型及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘洪宇.商品市场价格的三时点预测模型及其应用[J].预测,2001,20(3):51-54. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘洪宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 零陵师范高等专科学校,湖南,永州,425006;湖南大学,工商管理学院,湖南,长沙,410082 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文从供求决定价格和价格引导供求两个不同的角度，讨论了市场运行中供给，需求与市场价格三者的关系，建立了赋予时间意义的供给－价格线性反应式和需求－价格线性反应式，结合市场价格理论平均值（宏观市场价格）公式，建立了商品市场价格的三时点预测模型，运用该模型对美国1954－1988年大米市场进行了实证分析，并对永州市大米市场价格作了相当准确的预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 供给 需求 市场价格 反应式 预测 三时点预测模型 商品 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192(2001)03-0051-04 |
A Forecast Model about Market Price of Goods by Three Points of Time |
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| LIU Hong,yu.A Forecast Model about Market Price of Goods by Three Points of Time[J].Forecasting,2001,20(3):51-54. |
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| Authors: | LIU Hong yu |
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| Abstract: | The paper discusses the relationships between supply demand and market price from the angle that supply and demand decide price while price guides supply and demand. It sets up the supply price and demand price linear reaction formula with reference to time. It also establishes the forecast model about market price of goods by three points of time through the combination with the formula of the theoretical average value of market price. By analyzing the American rice market form 1954 to 1988, the paper forecasts accurately the market price of rice in Yongzhou city. |
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| Keywords: | supply demand market price reaction formula forecast |
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