引航员不安全行为干预的系统动力学仿真

为减少引航员的不安全行为,采用鱼骨图分析引航员不安全行为的影响因素,提出引航员不安全行为的干预策略,进而建立引航员不安全行为干预的系统动力学模型。结合港口引航员调研数据,对引航员不安全行为的动态演变过程进行仿真。案例计算结果表明:在干预策略实施期间,引航员驾引过程中不安全行为、不安全心理、不安全生理水平呈现先增后减的抛物线趋势。安全价值观和安全能力提升速度最快,干预效果最显著。提升引航员的安全价值观和安全能力是减少引航员不安全行为的重要策略。

System dynamics simulation on unsafe behavior intervention of pilots

In order to reduce the unsafe behaviors of pilots, the fishbone diagram is used to analyze the influencing factors of pilot unsafe behaviors, the intervention strategies of pilot unsafe behaviors are proposed, and the system dynamics model of pilot unsafe behavior intervention is established. Based on the port pilot survey data, the dynamic evolution of the pilot unsafe behaviors is simulated. The case calculation result shows that, during the implementation of intervention strategies, the unsafe level of behavior, psychology and physiology of pilots in the course of operation keeps a parabolic trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The safety values and the safety ability are promoted fastest and the intervention effects are the most significant. Improving the pilot safety values and the pilot safety ability is an important strategy for reducing the pilot unsafe behaviors.