Predicting Future Trends in Adult Fitness Using the Delphi Approach

Abstract

This study determined how experts see the future of adult fitness by using the Delphi Technique as a measurement tool. Experts (n = 50), all Fellows of the American College of Sports Medicine, were selected on the basis of their reputations in adult fitness. Three questionnaires were submitted to the panel. In the first questionnaire each expert listed five or more events, trends, or developments they thought would take place and five or more events they would like to see take place in the next 25 years. From the events and trends listed on this questionnaire, 100 items were generated that formed the basis for the last two questionnaires. Responses to the items on the second questionnaire were evaluated on a 5-point Likert scale for probability and desirability. In the third questionnaire, group means and standard deviations were calculated and recorded for each item. Only those items which were significantly (p < .01) higher than 3.0, the average probability or desirability response on the Likert scale, were included in the analysis. The items were divided into seven categories: fitness in sport and recreation, fitness and wellness, fitness in industry, fitness in education, fitness in business, research in fitness, and fitness equipment and facilities. The highest single mean for any item for both probability (M = 4.31) and desirability (M = 4.83) was increased awareness of health and fitness among the elderly.