基于STIRPAT模型的工业研发投入对碳排放影响效应分析

以中国35个工业分行业作为研究对象,运用STIRPAT模型和面板回归模型,分别探讨研发投入对工业不同阶段和不同类别行业的碳排放效应.结果 表明,在各个阶段,研发投入对促进碳减排均具有积极作用,且在2011-2017年间更为显著;对于不同行业,对于重度和中度排放组,研发投入对降低碳排放量均为显著影响,其弹性分别为-0.041和-0.018,而对轻度排放组,增加研发投入时,碳排放呈现增加的趋势.另外,劳动力规模是当前工业碳排放最明显的推动因素,而提升能源效率和改善能源结构对碳排放的增长具有显著抑制作用.在不同类别行业之间,各因素对碳排放的影响效应存在明显差异.

Analysis on the Effect of R&D Investment on Carbon Emission in Industrial Sector Based on STIRPAT Model

Taking China''s 35 industrial sub-sectors as the research object, using the STIRPAT model and the panel regression model, the effects of R&D investment on the carbon emissions of different industries and different types of industries are respectively explored. The results show that: at all stages, R&D investment has a positive effect on promoting carbon emission reduction, and it is more significant during 2011~2017. For different industries, for the heavy and moderate emission groups, R&D investment has a significant impact on reducing carbon emissions, and its elasticity is -0.041 and -0.018, respectively, while for the light emission group, carbon emissions show an increasing trend when R&D investment is increased. In addition, labor force scale is the most obvious driving factor of industrial carbon emissions at present, while improving energy efficiency and optimizing energy structure can significantly inhibit the growth of carbon emissions. The effects of various factors on carbon emissions are obviously different among different industries.