河南省人口-水资源-经济和谐发展时空变化分析

面对日益严峻的人、水、经济矛盾,研究区域人口-水资源-经济的和谐发展水平,分析其时空变化过程,能为区域缓解人口密集、水资源紧缺提供指导。本文根据人水和谐量化方法,确定了河南省2000-2012年18个城市的和谐发展水平,先利用变差系数对时间和空间的差异程度进行识别,再利用箱形图等分析其时间变化过程,利用全局Moran's I和局部Moran's I指数法分析其空间变化过程。结果表明,年际变差系数先上升后持续下降、趋于均衡,空间上周口市变差系数最大、郑州市变差系数最小;在时间上,河南省人口-水资源-经济的和谐发展水平整体有所提升,由“较不和谐”提高到了“较和谐”状态;在空间上,和谐发展水平存在显著空间正相关,三门峡、洛阳、济源为高高聚集区,商丘和濮阳为低低聚集区,整体呈现西优东劣态势。

Spatial and temporal change analysis of harmony development among population-water resources -economics in Henan,China

There is a close relation between the population,resources and economy. Population is the driving force of economic development and water resources is its supporting condition,and both are affected by the economy. Nowadays,contradictions among population,water resources and economics are increasingly severe. By researching levels of harmony development in Henan,China and spatial and temporal changes,pressure from population density and water shortage can be alleviated effectively. Eighteen cities in Henan were chosen as research regions and data from 2000 to 2012 were analyzed. The level of harmony development of Henan was determined based on the method of human-water harmony. The spatial and temporal difference degree of harmony degree were identified using coefficients of variation. Lastly,temporal change was analyzed using boxplots and the spatial one was analyzed using global and local Moran's I indexes. We found that the annual variation coefficient changed from ascending to descending and finally became balanced. Compared to the variation coefficient among 18 cities,Zhoukou had the maximum variation coefficient and Zhengzhou had the minimum one. On the whole,the harmony development level among populations,water resources and the economy in Henan improved from less disharmony to a more harmonious state. There was significant positive spatial autocorrelation of harmony development levels：Sanmenxia,Luoyang,Jiyuan were in high-high gathering area and Shangqiu and Puyang were in the low-low gathering area. Western cities fared better than eastern cities overall.