基于出游潜力模型的省级出境旅游市场分类研究

为认清中国出境旅游市场现状及问题,衡量中国各省（直辖市、自治区）出境旅游潜力,提升旅游市场的有序开发,本文从整体角度出发,在借鉴前人研究的基础上,以中国大陆省、自治区、直辖市为单元,选取区域总人口、国际贸易额等22个影响出境旅游潜力的因素,采用因子分析方法构建了潜力因子分析计算模型。以文化收入维度、对外联系维度、宏观经济维度以及消费习惯维度等4个公因子解释出境旅游潜力,并将模型计算结果与各省级区域的实际出境数据进行比对,用出境人次序位减去出境潜力序位,得到的各个省级区域的出境旅游位序差数据,发现出境旅游潜力与出境人次二者虽然存在显著的正相关性,但仍然有一些省份出现错位。此外,根据得到的不同省级的出境旅游潜力数据,将各省出境旅游市场分为潜力型、平衡型和超前型三类。研究结果可为今后有针对性地进行出境旅游潜力激发,防止出境旅游过度膨胀,促进中国出境旅游市场全面、有序、健康发展提供依据。

Market classification analysis of China provincial outbound tourism based on the travel potential model

In this study we aimed to understand the current situation and problems with the outbound tourism market in China,measure the potential of the outbound tourism in every province,and enhance the orderly development of tourism market. We used factor analysis methods to construct the potential mode,by taking provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China as the research unit and 22 potential factors （e.g. regional total population,international trade volume）affecting outbound tourism. An explanation of outbound tourism potential according to four common factors is provided：culture income dimensions,the external contact dimension,the macroeconomic dimension and consumption habits dimension. At the same time,by comparing the results calculated from the model with the actual outbound data in the provincial areas,subtracting the tagmeme of outbound-tourism potential from the tagmeme of the number of outbound people and then,the data of the tagmeme D-value of the outbound tourism in each provincial region are obtained. The data shows that outbound-tourism potential is positively correlated with outbound tourists;however,there are dislocations in some provinces. According to the outbound tourism potential obtained from different provinces,the Chinese outbound-tourism market can be divided into three categories：potential type, balanced type and advanced type. The evaluation model in this paper can be used to forecast and evaluate different provincial outbound-tourism markets to inspire tourism,prevent excessive expansion of outbound tourism,and promote the orderly,healthy and comprehensive development of outbound-tourism in China.