Cross-Impact Computer Simulation of Physical Education Program Priorities: A Systems Perspective

Abstract

This study explores some of the links between the physical education system and its socioeconomic environment, with examples drawn from Canadian experience. A cross-impact simulation was constructed and experiments were conducted to develop 20-year scenarios for a variety of economic conditions, government policies, community action, and changes in educational philosophies. Of particular interest was the observation that external changes had more impact upon the development of school programs than did pressures from within the system. One experiment suggested that changes in economic conditions, government policy, and public opinion were more influential than changes emanating from teacher-training institutions. To the designer of physical education programs, the simulation provides an indication of the environmental conditions which may favor the implementation of health-related, participative activities and those conditions which promote an emphasis upon competitive sports. Given such kinds of information the curriculum expert can design programs that attempt to accommodate needs at all levels of the system.