2020 年中国创新型城市的格局探析

中国能否在2020 年顺利进入创新型国家行列还存在不确定性，本文试图从区域十三五规划文本中寻找这个问题的答案。文章综合运用了指标分析、聚类分析、创新图谱、文本分析等方法，对296 个地级及地级以上城市十三五规划文本中的创新预期数据与创新相关名词词频等提取的数据进行了深入分析。结果表明，到2020 年创新型城市、准创新型城市和近创新型城市覆盖了中国5/9 的人口和3/4 的GDP，可被认为是进入创新型国家行列；39 个国家级创新型城市可进一步区分为三类，它们都是未来引领中国走向创新型国家的主要支撑点，其中北京、上海和深圳发挥重要的主导作用。这些研究结果对未来分类指导不同创新型城市建设和整体推进国家创新发展具有一定的指导意义。

Analysis of the Distribution Pattern of Innovation-oriented Cities in China in 2020

There are still uncertainties about whether China can be successfully qualified as an innovative country in 2020. This paper aim to find out a positive answer by analyzing the content of 13th five year plan at all prefecture-level. This study applied the index analysis, cluster analysis, innovation graph, text analysis and other methods to 296 cities at and above the prefecture-level based on the expected innovation data and word frequency data extracted from the texture of 13th five year plan. The results indicated that all innovationoriented cities, quasi-innovation-oriented cities and peri-innovation-oriented cities covered about 5/9 of national population and 3/4 of national GDP, and it means that China could be taken as a new member of innovation-driven countries. Meanwhile, the 39 national innovation-oriented cities could be divided into three kinds, and these cities will become the main struts to lead the national construction of innovationdriven country, and the results also presented that among these cities, the Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are much more important. The results may help for the classification guidance of construction in different innovation-oriented cities and promoting national innovation and development as a whole in the near future.