中国短缺资源跨国开发的风险管理

石油是重要的战略资源，是我国的短缺资源之一。到境外投资勘探开发石油，是我国利用国内国外两种资源战略的重要组成部分。石油工业的跨国投资和跨国经营，必然遇到包括政治风险、经济风险、技术风险和自然风险在内的多种风险。本文首先对风险进行界定和分类。接着在对石油工业跨国开发的多种风险的特征分析的基础上，着重对政治风险和经济风险进行了评估，提出我国石油工业政治风险和经济风险不同组合下的跨国开发6种模式： （1）与东道国的石油公司联合； （2）与有经验的国际石油公司联合；（3）服务合同； （4）合资经营； （5）购买储量； （6）获得勘探开发的股份转让。最后提出了管理政治和经济风险的对策和措施。对政治风险，主要是在投资前制定详细的计划，在投资后，通过营业政策的调整进行规避；对经济风险，主要通过及时了解东道国经济政策的变化，及时做出调整；以及通过期货市场规避石油价格变动的风险和通过货币保值规避汇率风险。

RISK MANAGEMENT OF TRANSNATIONAL EXPLOITATION OF CHINA'S DEFICIENT NATURAL RESOURCES--A CASE STUDY OF OIL RESOURCE

As one of China's deficient natural resources, oil is a very important strategic natural resource. Exploitation of overseas oil is a very important component part of the policies that utilize of both domestic and overseas natural resources. Transnational investment in petroleum industry has to face many risks, including politic and economic risks. Based on the definition and valuation of risks of oil transnational exploitation, this paper focuses on the valuation of politic and economic risks, and puts forward the six models for development of overseas oil: 1) Cooperation with oil companies of host country; 2) Cooperation with experienced transnational oil companies; 3) Signing service contract; 4) Establishing joint-venture company; 5) Purchasing oil reserves; 6) Obtaining transferred share holding of oil exploration. Finally, this paper puts forward the countermeasures for management of political and economic risks. To avoid political risk, detailed planning should be made before investment. After investment the manager should adjust the business policy. To avoid economic risk, the manager should adjust business planning based on the economic policy changes of the host country. The risk of oil price fluctuation can be avoided by oil future market, and the risk of exchange rate fluctuation can also be avoided by monetary market.