广州市城市扩张和经济发展之间的关系

本文基于广州市1987年-2010年的建成区面积和第二、三产业GDP的统计数据,应用协整分析、库兹涅茨曲线和“脱钩”理论对建成区面积扩张和经济发展之间的关系进行实证研究.结果表明两者之间存在长期协整关系,并得到两者之间的协整方程,通过Granger因果检验,发现两者之间不存在Granger因果关系.通过误差修正模型发现修正系数为负,符合误差修正机制.通过对建成区面积和第二、三产业GDP之关系的库兹涅茨曲线研究,结果表明两者的坐标曲线呈倒“U”型.进一步对建成区面积扩张和第二、三产业GDP进行总量脱钩研究,探究不同发展阶段城市扩张和经济发展的关系.

The Relationship between Urban Expansion and Economic Development of Guangzhou City

Economic development is one of the major drivers of urban expansion. Here, we address the relationship between urban expansion and economic development from 1987 to 2010 for Guangzhou by combining the three methods of cointegration analysis, Kuznets Curve and decoupling analysis. Change in built-up areas was the indicator of urban expansion. We found that built-up areas have expanded by 0.5033 02%, as the economy increased by 1%. The relationship between the urban built-up area and the second and tertiary industry GDP Kuznets Curve is an inverted U. The inflection point appears when GDP for second and tertiary industries reaches 13.5×10⁶ million CNY; thus far this point has not been reached. Due to changes in built-up areas and the impact of policy, the impact on the economy is not immediate and often has hysteresis qualities. We used the cumulative value to eliminate lag effects and divided the study period into eight parts. Results showed that economic development placed large pressure on urban expansion initially, but with the development of the economy pressure eased. It appears that economic development and urban expansion have a close relationship and the built up area should not be further expanded. Future rapid and sound development should be based on internal urban environments, adjusted land use structure, and land use intensity.