产业产出序列的逻辑函数分析

本文首先对产业成长过程作了一些基本描述，指出一个产业的产出序列不一定服从逻辑函数，如果产出序列服从逻辑函数，其也有可能包含有若干个子逻辑序列。其次，定义了辨识序列与波动序列，进而建立了F（K，b)与W（K,b)两个辨识一个产业的产出序列是否服从逻辑函数以及对其构成阶段加以区分并确定相应的逻辑参数的理论模型。最后，简单扼要地介绍了把有关模型应用于实际分析的程序与规则。

An Analysis on the Output Series of an Industry by Logistic Function

First the paper analyzes the growth process of an industry based on logistic function, puts the statement that output series of an industry may or may not belong to logistic function,and it may composed of several sub- logistic- periods even it belongs to a logistic function.Secondly the identifying series and the waving series are introduced,F(K,b) model and W(K,b) model are es- tablished,by which the waving properties and the param eters can be determined directly.At last, the working procedure and standards in applying the models practically are proposed.