| 采用改进模拟植物生长算法的世界石油船队总运力预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王诺,丁凯,吴迪.采用改进模拟植物生长算法的世界石油船队总运力预测[J].上海海事大学学报,2019,40(2):23-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王诺 丁凯 吴迪 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学交通运输工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（71372087）；国家海洋软科学项目（JJYX201612 1） |
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| 摘 要： | 为准确预测世界石油船队总运力情况,收集近15年来世界石油船队总运力的统计数据,分别从总运力趋势波动和运力净增量波动两个方面进行分析。建立时间序列模型来揭示世界石油船队总运力的变化规律,用改进的模拟植物生长算法(plant growth simulation algorithm,PGSA)进行求解。与遗传算法进行对比,改进算法的程序运行时间、均方根误差和平均绝对百分比误差均较低,算法预测的结果与历史数据的拟合度达92. 32%,预测结果具有较高的准确性。分析思路和方法可为航运企业科学决策提供技术支撑。
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| 关 键 词： | 世界石油船队 总运力预测 净增量 时间序列模型 模拟植物生长算法（PGSA） |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/6/3 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/9/26 0:00:00 |
Prediction of total transport capacity of world crude oil fleets based on improved plant growth simulation algorithm |
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| Institution: | Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Maritime University |
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| Abstract: | In order to accurately predict the total transport capacity of world crude oil fleets, the data of total transport capacity of world crude oil fleets over the past 15 years are collected, and the data are analyzed from two aspects: the fluctuation of the total transport capacity trend and the fluctuation of the net increment of transport capacity. The time series model is established to reveal the change rule of the total transport capacity of world crude oil fleets, and the improved plant growth simulation algorithm (PGSA) is used to solve the model. Compared with the genetic algorithm, the program running time, the root mean square error and the mean absolute percent error of the improved PGSA are lower. The fitting degree between the predicted data obtained by the improved PGSA and the historical data is 92.32%. The prediction results are of high accuracy. The analysis idea and method can provide technical support for scientific decision making of shipping enterprises. |
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| Keywords: | world crude oil fleet prediction of total transport capacity net increment time series model plant growth simulation algorithm (PGSA) |
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