Designing effective supports for causal reasoning

Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the “cement of the universe” Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and inferences, and explaining phenomena. Causal relations are usually more complex than learners understand. In order to be able to understand and apply causal relationships, learners must be able to articulate numerous covariational attributes of causal relationships, including direction, valency, probability, duration, responsiveness, as well as mechanistic attributes, including process, conjunctions/disjunctions, and necessity/sufficiency. We describe different methods for supporting causal learning, including influence diagrams, simulations, questions, and different causal modeling tools, including expert systems, systems dynamics tools, and causal modeling tools. Extensive research is needed to validate and contrast these methods for supporting causal reasoning.