基于改进风险矩阵法的学校体育竞赛风险评估研究

随着新时期学校体育工作对人才核心素养培养战略地位的逐步确立，学校体育竞赛的安全、有序、常态发展成为新时期各级各类学校体育治理的重中之重。如何针对新形势下的学校体育竞赛组织管理现状，有效实现学校体育竞赛风险防控与应对，突破学校体育竞赛风险管理桎梏，成为全面夯实且深入推进学校体育工作的重要议题。将改进风险矩阵法与德尔菲法、层次分析法充分结合，围绕人员风险、设施风险、组织管理风险及环境风险四大主线，确立了涵盖27个指标的学校体育竞赛风险指标体系，量化分析各风险指标的发生概率、影响力、风险等级、权重及其可接受性，进而提出新时期学校体育竞赛风险降低、风险转移、风险规避和风险接受的框架性应对措施。

Assessment Index System of School Sports Competition's Risks Based on Improved Risk Matrix

With the gradual establishment of the strategic position of the core literacy training of the school sports work in the new era,the safe, orderly and normal development of the most influential sports competition in school sports has become the top priority of all kinds of school sports management innovation in the new era. How to deal with the current situation of school sports competition management under the new situation, effectively realize the risk prevention and control of school sports competition, break through the shackles of risk management in school sports competition become an important topic for comprehensively and intensively promoting school sports. This study established a risk index system of school sports competitions covering 27 indicators through constructing the improved risk matrix of school sports competitions, adopting Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process, and based on personnel risk, facility risk, organization management risk and environmental risk. Quantitative analyses of the occurrence probability, influence, risk level, weight and acceptability of each risk indicator were made and response measures for risk reduction, risk transfer, risk avoidance and risk acceptance was constructed.