贸易自由化与中国农村贫困的减少

现有研究对贸易-贫困联系存在很多争论,本文提供的简单模型也证明了外贸的贫困效应具有不确定性。中国的贸易自由化降低了一些农产品的名义保护率,使其生产者的福利水平下降,但农产品外贸的扩大则迅速减少了农村贫困。农产品外贸结构的变化既冲击不同类型农业生产者的福利水平,也使沿海地区农民成为最大受益群体。本文采用联立方程的似不相关回归对中国的贸易-贫困联系进行估计,其结论显示,中国的贸易-贫困联系具有倒J型特征:20世纪90年代中期之前,贸易自由化恶化农村贫困状况,而其后则有利于农村贫困减少。

Trade Liberalization and Poverty Reduction in Rural China

In present literature,there exists much controversy over the trade-poverty link;and the simple model provided by this paper also shows that the effect of foreign trade on poverty is ambiguous.Trade liberalization of China decreased the NPRs of some agricultural products,which cut down the welfare of their producers;but the expansion in foreign trade of agricultural products reduced rapidly rural poverty.The change in foreign-trade construction of agricultural products not only impacted the welfare level of different kinds of agricultural producers,but also made the farmers in coastal areas be the greatest gainers.This paper applies SURE with simultaneous-equations to assess the linkage of trade-poverty in China,and its result shows that the link of trade-poverty in China is characterized by inverted J-shape: before mid-1990s,trade liberalization worsened the rural poverty;and then it has been beneficial for reducing rural poverty.