库兹涅茨假说及中国地区差距的实证研究

对库兹涅茨假说的内涵、实质进行理论表述与分析,简述了学术界关于该假说的争论,提出了该假说成立的三个隐含条件。应用“各态历经理论”,以改革开放20年来中国东、西部地区经济发展差异为实证研究对象,研究表明无论是中国东西地区人均财富差异、经济密度差异,还是经济总量差异,均符合库兹涅茨假说。文章提出中国应积极寻求发展与公平之间的平衡点与结合点,尽快培育由发展与公平“两难”境地向“双赢”局面转化的政策环境,以及中央政府充当“道德人”角色的功能作用要进一步强化的若干政策建议。

S.Kuznets Hypothesis and Empirical Study on Regional Difference in China

This paper has a theoretical analysis on the connotation and essence of S.Kuznets Hypothesis, briefly introduces the academic circle's controversy about it and puts forward three connotative prerequisites. In connection with Ergodic Hypothesis, it carries out empirical study on the difference in the economic development in Eastern China and Western China ever since the policy of reformation and opening has been implemented, and draws a conclusion that the average wealth difference per person, the economic density and the comprehensive economic index tally with S.Kuznets Hypothesis without exception. It recommends that China should actively seek for the equilibrium point and bonding point, cultivate a favorable policy environment as soon as possible that turns the "dilemma" condition into "double winner" development and fairness, and further strengthen the function of the Central Government as the role of "virtuous person".