油气安全战略与“双碳”战略：关系与路径

百年变局叠加世纪疫情给全球能源安全敲响警钟,深刻理解能源转型发展与能源安全的关系,探寻中国能源安全与“双碳”战略同步实现路径成为重大战略问题。文章基于对中国能源发展图景和“双碳”战略内涵的分析,明确提出:(1)能源安全是能源转型发展的基础,中国油气短缺形势长期存在,“双碳”目标与油气安全战略并行不悖。(2)中国的油气安全需在两个层次谋篇布局,近中远全程做好部署——做稳做好传统油气勘探领域发展,宜坚持“海陆并举、常非并重,稳油增气”目标;积极开拓新油气资源领域,重点组织好陆相中低熟页岩油原位转化、富油煤热转化利用与煤炭地下气化等“三个革命”,为在传统油气领域“稳油增气”基础上实现规模上产做好准备。(3)“双碳”战略是一场广泛而深刻的系统革命,化石能源的退出必须以能源安全为前提,要把化石能源清洁化利用、可再生能源加大利用、柔性智能电网建设、储能基础设施建设与能源利用效率提升5件大事同步抓实抓好,在保证能源安全无虞基础上,依靠技术进步,通过多途径实现“碳中和”目标。

Hydrocarbon Security Strategy and Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral Strategy: Relationship and Path

A century of changes combined with the COVID-19 pandemic has sounded the alarm on energy security around the world. How to deeply understand the relationship between energy transition and energy security, and how to explore the path of China''s energy security and the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (abbreviated as "dual carbon") strategy have become a major problem. Based on detailed analyses of China''s energy consumption predictions and dual carbon strategy requirements, this study proposes:(1) Energy security is the foundation of energy transition. The oil and gas shortage situation in China may persist for a long time. The "dual carbon" goal does not conflict with hydrocarbon security strategy. (2) China''s hydrocarbon security needs to be considered at two levels. The deployment needs to be made in the near-, medium- and long-term. First, it is necessary to continue exploring traditional oil and gas resources, including land and sea, conventional and unconventional resources. The second is to actively explore at new areas of oil and gas resources, and focus on organizing the "three revolutions" of in-situ conversion of medium-low mature shale oil, thermal conversion and utilization of oil-rich coal and underground coal gasification to prepare for large-scale increase of oil and gas production. (3) The "dual carbon" strategy is an extensive and profound system revolution. The withdrawal of fossil energy must be based on energy security. The clean use of fossil energy, the increased use of renewable energy, the construction of flexible smart grids, the construction of energy storage infrastructure and the improvement of efficiency in energy utilization, must be paid close attention to simultaneously. On the basis of ensuring energy security, the goal of "carbon neutrality" can be achieved through multiple ways relying on technological progress.