Use of the probit model to estimate school performance in student attainment of achievement testing standards

In the USA, trends in educational accountability have driven several models attempting to provide quality data for decision making at the national, state, and local levels, regarding the success of schools in meeting standards for competence. Statistical methods to generate data for such decisions have generally included (a) status models that examine simple indications of number of students meeting a criterion level of achievement, (b) growth models that explore change over the course of one or more years, and (c) value-added models that attempt to control for factors deemed relevant to student achievement patterns. This study examined a new strategy for student and school achievement modeling that augments the field through the use of the probit model to estimate the likelihood of students meeting an established level standard and estimating the proportion of individuals within a school meeting the standard. Results of the study showed that the probit model was an effective tool both for providing such adjustments, as well as for adjusting them based upon salient demographic variables. Implications of these results and suggestions for further use of the model are discussed.