The fiscal effects of tax-credit scholarship programs in the United States

This article conducts a fiscal analysis of 10 tax-credit programs in seven states. In total, the 10 programs in the present study represent 90% of all scholarships awarded in tax-credit scholarship programs today. The analysis employs a set of cautious assumptions about switcher rates and students who receive multiple scholarships to generate a range of estimates of the net fiscal impact of these tax-credit scholarship programs on state and local taxpayers. Tax-credit scholarship programs up to fiscal year (FY) 2014 generated positive fiscal impacts worth between $1,650 and $3,000 per scholarship student. In FY 2014 alone, tax-credit scholarship programs generated between about $2 million and $223 million for their states. Break-even switcher rates for fiscal neutrality are reported for all programs.