基于BFT和CDS的集成供应链避险机制研究

本文从决策者的有限理性角度,指出了集成供应链风险管理者的金字塔式心理账户结构;据此,构建了基于BFT和CDS、以多心理账户行为证券组合理论为核心的集成供应链避险模型;因有限理性符合风险管理者实际情景,决定了本研究较传统避险分析更为逼近集成供应链的现实避险决策。

Analysis of BFT and CDS based Integrated Supply Chain Risk Transfer Mechanism

To address decision-makers' bounded rationality, a behavioral finance theory (BFT) is introduced in the integrated supply chain (ISC) risk management system. Authors not only describe, under the riddle of Friedman and Savage, the pyramid structure of ISC risk manager's mental accounts, but also explain the empirical abnormity phenomena in ISC. Authors, based on the pyramid structure of mental accounts, have modified the traditional credit default swap (CDS) risk transfer model without risk attitudes. An ISC risk transfer model, with multiple mental accounts as its core, is also established under the behavioral portfolio theory and based on BFT and CDS. As the hypothesis of bounded rationah'ty is well in line with the risk management mentality in practice, the new model has advanced a step closer to reality, as compared with traditional risk transfer analysis approach.