国家级创新型城市技术成就指数俱乐部收敛效应

本文在测度我国21个国家级创新型城市2001-2009年的技术成就指数的基础上，利用内生的CART方法，以技术成就指数为目标变量，选择了反映区域创新能力初始水平与区域经济结构特征的6个预测变量，获得了更符合俱乐部趋同定义的最优区域分组，使用Theil指数检验与随机收敛单位根检验，对21个国家级创新型城市技术成就水平进行俱乐部趋同检验。结果表明：（1）样本期内21个国家级创新型城市技术成就指数虽总体上升，但差异较大；（2）政府干预与区域技术进步是最重要的影响分组变量，这也说明我国创新型城市发展具有鲜明的政府驱动特征；（3）根据政府干预与区域技术进步的相似性，21个国家级创新型城市可内生区分为三个俱乐部，深圳市依然领跑我国创新型城市进程，而北京、上海等七个城市则代表达到较高技术成就水平的趋同俱乐部，其余城市形成了另外一个趋同俱乐部。

Club Convergence Effect of Technology Achievement Index among National Innovative Cities

Based on Technology Achievement Index of China's 21 national innovative cities during 2001-2009, this article chooses Technology Achievement Index as target variables and six predictor variables reflecting the initial level of regional innovation capacity and regional economic structure characteristics to gain the optimal regional groupings, which match the definition of club convergence better. Combining the endogenous CART methods with Theil index test and random convergence unit root test, this article conducts club convergence test for the level of technical achievement of 21 national innovative cities. The results show that: (1) though the overall Technology Achievement Index of 21 national innovative cities is growing, the difference is becoming larger during the sample period; (2) government intervention and regional technological progress are the most important grouping variables, this also indicates that the development of innovative cities has a distinct characteristic of government-driving; (3) According to the similarity of government intervention and regional technical progress, 21 national innovative cities can be divided into three clubs endogenously. Shenzhen still leads the process of innovative city in China; then seven cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, represent a convergence club of relatively higher level of technical achievement; the rest other cities forms the last club.