利率决定与利率弹性:一种可能的解释

抽象的自然利率终属于虚乌有，而在一定的社会经济条件下，却存在适度的、可行的利率区间。利率问题的重要性主要在于利率变化通过供给和需求渠道影响产出的可能性，但理论和经验研究皆显示，中国总需求以及产了同的利率弹性很不显。因此，在目前经济发展与体制背景下，中国利率体制的重构应该注意两个方面：第一，将利率保持在均衡区间，适时调整以与经济系统其他方面主要包括价格走势、货币市场、资本市场和外汇市场相协调。第二，利率杠杆不宜作为调节短期需求的手段，而应该充当体现国家政策和体制的中长期导向性工具。

Determination and Elasticity of Interest Rates:A Possible Explanation

Under a particular social economic circumstance, there is some appropriate and feasible interval of interest rates without abstract natural interest rates. The interest rate is revelant because it may have an effect on output through supply and demand mechanism,but theoretical and positive research have revealed that the output elasticity of interest rates is rather insignificant in China. Therefore, we should keep an eye on the following two points in reshaping Chinese interest rate system. First, we should make sure that interest rates stay in the equilbrium interval in accord with other parts in economy including price movement, markets of money,capital and foreign exchange etc..Secondly,while the level of interest rates is not a suitable way to manage short term demand, we may just as well make it a medium or long term orientating tool displaying policy and institution of the Government.