江苏居民生活能源消费及其影响因素分解:城乡比较

在描述江苏1995-2016年居民生活能源消费趋势及其结构的时间演变轨迹基础上,采用LMDI模型对该时期能源消费量增长因素展开指数分解;且重点考察城乡的不同。研究发现,生活能源消费总量在平稳波动中上升,城乡间差距总体扩大,呈现出城镇“石油、电力与天然气”三足鼎立、农村以电力为主导的消费格局。人均可支配收入是城乡居民生活能源消费增加的第一主因、消费倾向位居第四、能源消费结构作用极小;而人口规模和能源消费强度的影响程度和方向均不同。这五因素的影响效应在正负方向与数值大小上,不同时期存在差异。这些实证结果为控制江苏居民生活能源消费快速增长提供了思路。

Research on Residents'Energy Consumption in Jiangsu and Its Influencing Factors:Urban and Rural Comparison

On the basis of the temporal evolution of the trend and structure of Jiangsu residents'energy consumption from 1995 to 2016,this paper uses the LMDI model to decompose the growth factors of energy consumption and focuses on the differences between urban and rural areas.It is found in the study that energy consumption rose steadily and the gap between urban and rural areas widened as a whole.It is characterized by the tripartite consumption pattern of"oil,electricity and natural gas"in cities and towns,dominated by rural electricity.The per capita disposable income is the first main reason for the increase of household energy consumption,consumption tendency ranks fourth,and energy consumption structure plays a very small role.But population size and energy consumption intensity have different impacts and directions.Moreover,the effects of these five factors vary in positive and negative directions and numerical values in different periods.These empirical results provide ideas for controlling the rapid growth of Jiangsu residents'energy consumption.