中国东南沿海地区工业能源消费碳排放的驱动因素分析

本文以福建省为例,分析了东南沿海地区工业能源消费碳排放变化的影响因素,结果显示:1工业能源消费碳排放总量变化主要受产出规模的增效应和工业能源强度的减效应影响,且正效应远远高于负效应;2地区产业结构的高级化与能源结构的多元化有利于区域工业节能减排,但其作用相对较小;3碳排放主要受中度技术劳动密集型产业、劳动密集型产业以及中度技术资本密集型产业等经济规模增长拉动而增加,同时,这些产业能源强度下降幅度也相对较大,可见,能源消费总量最大的产业也是节能减排成效和潜力最大的产业;4东南沿海地区工业经济外向型特征显著,受国际市场需求和国家宏观政策调控影响较大。

Driving factors of industrial energy consumption and carbon emissions in southeast coastal regions of China: Taking Fujian province as a case study

Taking Fujian province as an example, this paper discusses the relationship between regional industrialization processes and carbon emissions of energy consumption, and analyzes carbon emissions changes during 2000-2012 based on LDMI modeling. Changes in carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption is decomposed into an energy consumption structure effect, energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, economic scale effect, and population scale effect. We find that changes in carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption are mainly effected by economic scale and energy intensity, the former has a positive effect on increasing carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption, and the latter has a negative effect on decreasing carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption. In addition, the positive effect plays a much bigger role than the latter. As a result, the total carbon emissions followed a growing trend from 2000-2012. The diversification of industrial energy consumption structure, and upgrade of industrial structure are conducive to industrial energy conservation and emissions reduction in Fujian province, but their effects are relatively small. In terms of different types of industries, carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption in Fujian province is mainly affected by medium technology and labor-intensive industries, labor intensive industries and medium technology and capital-intensive industries. At the same time, during the study period the energy intensities of medium technology and labor-intensive industries, labor intensive industries, and medium technology and labor-intensive industries, decreased more noticeably. The industrial economy of Fujian is characterized as export-oriented economy and influenced by international markets and national macro policy, therefore, carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption are also affected by these two factors.