1991-2011年南海周边国家及地区经济重心及经济发展重心演变分析

运用重心模型,计算出1991-2011年间南海周边国家及地区经济重心及经济发展重心坐标,揭示南海周边国家及地区经济特征演变过程。研究结果表明:①总体上看,以区域几何中心为参照,经济重心大体呈南北狭长型分布,全部落于区域东北部位置,经济发展重心大体呈团聚状分布,有11个落入东北部,10个落入西北部;②在整体移动轨迹方面,经济重心比经济发展重心表现出更为简洁的特征,2000年后经济重心稳定向西南方向移动,经济发展重心在短时间内会呈现急剧的变化,这说明经济重心存在来自于区域特定方向上的力的强烈作用,而经济发展重心来自于经度和纬度方向上的力都较为均衡;③1999年以后,来自区域西部方向的力持续稳定地拉动经济重心的移动,区域南部的力对经济重心移动极为显著。同时,对经济发展重心而言,1999年后东西方向上的力对其移动作用不显著,在南北方向上有悄然北移的态势;④从区域经济总量和经济发展水平均衡性来看,经济重心在总体上趋于稳定态势,经济发展重心的不均衡性逐渐加强并稳定,且来自于南北方向上的力是造成这种结果的主要原因。

Evolvement Analysis of the Economic Gravity Center and Economic Development Gravity Center in the Regions of South China Sea during 1991-2011

To reveal the economic dynamic development process of countries and areas around the South China Sea,this paper adopts the gravity model to determine the coordinates of the economy gravity center (EGC) and economy development gravity center (EDGC) from 1991 to 2011. We found that according to the geometric center,the distribution of the EGC shows a long and narrow figure from north to south,and all points are present in the northeast part of the whole area. The distribution of the EDGC shows characteristics like a group,and 11 points fall in the northeast of the area with 10 points in the northwest. EGC has a more concise evolvement routine than EDGC. The routine of the EGC moves to the southwest of the area steadily after 2000,and oppositely,the evolution of the EDGC sometimes shows a sharp change over a short period. These patterns mean that EGC may be affected by power from some special parts of the area,but there is no dominant power affecting the evolvement of the EDGC. Power from the western and the southern part of the area continuously attracts the EGC after 1999. Regarding the EDGC,eastern and western powers do not have obvious attraction,but the northern power gradually became an attraction element. To assess the area's future EGC and EDGC trends,we compare the distance between EGC and EDGC to the geometric center. Closer to the geometric center,more balanced patterns are found. This analysis of EGC shows that a balanced trend may be formatted,and that the EDGC has gradually become unbalanced. Power from latitude countries is the dominant reason for this pattern.