Towards numeracy for the third millennium: A study of the future of mathematics and mathematics education

The research reported here has sought to identify target skills and abilities that will compose a future numeracy, so that new expertise can be incorporated and the exposed deficiencies remedied within a dynamic rather than static concept of competency. A nation-wide selection of panellists contributed to a three-round Delphi process, with the final data comprising both structured responses and qualitative comment. The scope of the items covered calculating activities, writing activities, reading activities, physical skills, supporting (mental) skills, applications, and problem solving. Responses to the structured items have provided priorities for numeracy for the turn of the century, in terms of both expected and desired characteristics. In general, expectations for numeracy fall short of the levels deemed desirable by panel consensus. The qualitative comments have been incorporated into three scenarios reflecting altermative visions for the future. A comparison of the scenarios uncovers wide differences between informed thinkers with respect to future visions of the ends, means, and mechanics of learning. These differences among individuals who are otherwise consistent in their views of future needs must be addressed if the identified priorities are not to be lost in a quagmire of conflicting interests, opinions, priorities, and values.