基于马尔科夫域变模型对股市财富效应的研究

次贷危机以来,我国经济发展环境日趋复杂恶化。扩大内需,依靠国内消费拉动经济增长已经成为共识。利用资本市场财富效应刺激居民消费是有效的政策。本文利用马尔科夫域变模型,衡量我国股票市场财富效应在股市各个阶段中的变化。通过实证我们发现,我国股市的剧烈波动是阻碍资本市场财富效应发挥的主要因素,在股市平稳上升的阶段,我国股市具有一定的财富效应。证券市场的制度建设对我国股票市场财富效应的发挥起到一定的积极作用。

Study on Stock Market Wealth Effect Based on Markov Regime-switching Models

After the subprime crisis,the environment for economic development in China has been deteriorating.Expanding the domestic demand and consumption to boost the economy has been the consensus.Employing wealth effect to stimulate household consumption is an effective policy.This paper takes advantage of Markov regime-switching model to measure the volatility of the stock market wealth effect during all stages.The empirical study shows that the sharp fluctuation of Chinese stock market is the major factor that restrains wealth effect.In a stage of steady rise,Chinese stock market demonstrates wealth effect.Construction of the security market managing system will help wealth effect to function.