| 人因海事事故诱因组合模式分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张丽丽,吕靖,艾云飞. 人因海事事故诱因组合模式分析与预测[J]. 上海海事大学学报, 2014, 35(4): 32-36 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张丽丽 吕靖 艾云飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学 交通运输管理学院,大连海事大学 交通运输管理学院,大连海事大学 交通运输管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目（11JZD049） |
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| 摘 要： | 为深入了解人因失误对海事事故的诱发机制,以事故历史数据为基础,对诱因组合模式进行分析和预测.在阐述"瑞士奶酪"模型和人的因素分析与分类系统(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System,HFACS)核心思想的基础上,构建人因海事事故诱因分类体系.将诱因量化为矩阵并通过矩阵转化和聚类分析等提取事故主要诱因组合模式,利用Bootstrap方法对主要诱因组合模式进行预测,结果有助于决策者制定针对性强、可操作性高的防范措施,可以从根本上提高海上运输安全性.
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| 关 键 词： | 人因失误； 海事事故； 诱因组合； 人的因素分析与分类系统（HFACS）； Bootstrap |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-03-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-05-13 |
Analysis and prediction of inducement combination modes of maritime accidents induced by human errors |
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| Affiliation: | Dalian Maritime University Transportation Management |
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| Abstract: | To better understand the mechanism of maritime accidents induced by human errors, the inducement combination modes are analyzed and predicted based on the history data. An inducement classification system of maritime accidents induced by human errors is developed based on the core concept of the Swiss Cheese Model and Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). The inducement factors are quantified in form of matrix. By matrix transform and clustering analysis, the main inducement combination modes are obtained. Then, the modes are predicted by Bootstrap method. The results may help decision makers to implement targeted and maneuverable preventive measures, and improve the maritime transportation safety. |
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| Keywords: | human error maritime accident inducement combination Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) Bootstrap |
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