概率与相对频率--评波普尔的概率理论

概率的定义有两种稍微不同的陈述方式,按照第一种陈述,相对频率就是概率;按照第二种陈述,相对频率与概率是不同的概念概率依赖于观察者;相对频率则与观察者无关.只有在一定条件下,这两个不同含义的量才在数值上相等.关于概率的许多争论,特别是概率的主观诠释与客观诠释之间的争论,都与这两种陈述的微妙区别有关.波普尔采用的是第一种陈述,但他也承认存在第二种陈述.在此基础上他创建了一个复杂的概念体系.本文将考察波普尔的这一概念体系.

Probability and Relative Frequency --Comment on Popper's Interpretation for Probability

There are two forms of statement about the definition of probabilities. according to the first statement that a relative frequency is a probability; according to the second statement that relative frequency and probability are two distinct concepts; probability is dependent on the observers, while relative frequency is not dependent on the observers. These two quantities are equal in amount under the certain condition. A lot of disputes about probabilities, particularly disputes between subjective interpretation and objective interpretation, are related to the subtle distinct between these two statements. Popper adopted the first statement, but he agreed that there exits the second statements, based on such a disposal he founded a complex probability concept system, which will be examined herein.