对安徽省城乡居民储蓄存款进一步分析和预测

近20年来，我省城乡居民储蓄存款迅速增长，本文首先分析其原因，认为收入增长和居民固有的储蓄倾向是居民储蓄存款增长的主要因素，而利率和通货膨胀对居民储蓄行为影响是很复杂的。然后我们运用模型进行分析，认为近几年我省居民储蓄存款增长率虽然下降，但这主要是由于我省居民货币收入增长率下降所引起的，而我省居民所固有的储蓄倾向并没有发生改变。最后我们对下世纪初我省城乡居民储蓄存款作出初步预测。

A Further Analysis and Forecast On Saving Deposit of Anhui Province Inhabitants

In recent twenty years, the saving deposit of Anhui province inhabitants has gown rapidly.This Paper first analyses the factors about our inhabitant saving behavior. There are two main factors:income and propensity to saving. We find that our inhabitants are inert to the change of interest rates.Then, the Paper forecasts our inhabitant's saving deposit in next century.