中国东南沿海台风灾害链区域规律与适应对策研究

改革开放三十多年来,东南沿海是中国经济发展最快、人口和财富最集中的地区,然而台风及由其引发的暴雨洪涝、滑坡/泥石流等灾害链时有发生,对区域安全构成严重威胁。尊重自然规律,与灾害风险共存的适应是以协调人类系统与自然系统关系为出发点,即人类要在充分尊重自然灾害的区域规律基础上,合理调适自身行为,实现"与风险共存"的可持续发展。具体的适应行为又可分为工程性和非工程两大类,工程性适应侧重防灾减灾工程(如海堤、水库)等能力建设,非工程性适应侧重减灾组织体系和运行机制建设(如分区分时的人员转移安置,灾害分级响应和纵横协调,多主体风险共担等)。综上各项工程和非工程性适应对策,有助于大大提升区域灾害风险防范和综合适应能力,有效减轻东南沿海台风灾害链损失。

Regional Features and Adaptation Countermeasures of Typhoon Disaster Chains in Southeast Coastal Regions of China

After more than 30 years of development since the reform and opening-up policy was launched,the southeast coastal region has become the most developed area in China,with the most concentrated population and economy.But at the same time,frequent typhoon disaster chains,such as typhoon-heavy rainstorms-floods-landslides/debris flows threaten greatly the regional security and sustainable development.Based on the causal analysis of typhoon disasters and their domino effects along the coastal regions,several different types of disaster chains were figured out and mapped,and their corresponding adaptation measures proposed from both engineering and non-engineering perspectives.Then a framework for regional sustainable development was put forward by following the characteristics of natural disasters and living risk,by integrating the engineering and non-engineering adaptive strategies,and by achieving in the end harmoniously the regional economic,social,and ecological developments.It can therefore become reference to regional disaster mitigation plans,the integrated risk governance,and sustainable development in the southeast coastal regions.