对我国房地产市场需求和供给函数的动态分析

本文利用可变参数模型对我国房地产市场需求、供给进行了动态的定量分析。分析表明,在影响房屋需求的诸因素中,收入弹性最大,其次是价格、利率弹性;在影响供给的因素中,价格和利率弹性都较大。各弹性序列的动态变化还表明货币政策的实施在房地产市场是有效的,同时可以看出当前较高的房价水平是房地产市场进一步发展的瓶颈,只有将房价控制在合理的区间内,才能增加有效需求,防止出现"泡沫"。

Dynamic Analysis on Demand and Supply Function of Chinese Real Estate Market

This paper makes a quantitative dynamic analysis on demand and supply in our real estate market by using time varying parameter model. The result shows the followings. Firstly, among the several factors affecting demand for houses, income elasticity is the biggest which is followed by price and interest rate elasticity. Secondly, among the several factors affecting supply for houses, price and interest rate elasticity are at large. Thirdly, various variable elasticity also shows that the monetary policy is effective in the real estate market while the high price of houses is the bottleneck which hinders its development. Only by controlling the price of houses within a reasonable state can the effective demand increase and bubble be prevented.