都市地价空间分析方法及其应用——以北京市为例

都市出让地价,按用途可分为住宅、商业、综合和工业用地出让地价,具有较强的空间特征。对其进行空间分析,有助于了解各类土地供需关系和价格变动趋势。都市地价空间分析方法主要包括趋势面法、不规则三角网法、距离倒数法和克里格法。本文采用克里格法分析了北京市商业、住宅、综合和工业出让地价的空间分布格局：住宅出让地价水平存在内高外低、北高南低的趋势,且郊区化现象较为明显;综合地价高价位地价主要集中在中关村高科技园区,中等级地价主要分布在王府井和东单、金融街一带;商业地价总趋势是北城大于南城,地价重心略偏北东方向,高等级商业地价以旧城区为主,呈"凸"字形空间分布格局,中等级地价受北京市新的市级商业中心的影响,呈组团式分布;高等级的工业地价主要集中在海淀区,中等级的工业地价呈多个次中心分布。发现地价空间变异受随机因子影响较小,但四种出让地价具有较强的空间毗邻效应,且毗邻效应有效半径在7.79km--47.03km之间。这一发现对于引导地产投资及开发项目布局,有一定参考价值。

SPATIAL ANALYSIS METHOD FOR METROPOLITAN LAND PRICE AND ITS APPLICATION IN BEIJING

Remisee land prices of metropolises can be divided into residential, commercial, industrial and complex remise land prices according to the purposes of land use. The commonly used spatial interpolation methods include surface trend analysis method, triangulated irregular network method (TIN), inverse distance weighting method(IDW) and ordinary Kriging method(OK). The paper adopted the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator method (Kriging method) to analyze the spatial character of the four kinds above in Beijing. The results showed that the level of residential remised land price was higher in inner and northern part and lower in outer and southern part of Beijing and the trend of suburb was significant. For the level of compositive remised land price, the high price was mainly concentrated in the ZhongGuanCun High Tech Zone while the medium level of price was mainly in WangFuJing, DongDan Commercial Zones and Beijing Banking Zone. As for the level of commercial remised land price, the general trend was that price in the northern part was higher than that of in the southern part of Beijing, and the land price mainly tilted toward northern and eastern part and the high level commercial remise land price was mainly concentrated in the old downtown areas, which represented the convex pattern of spatial distribution. The medium level of price was mainly affected by the newly emerged commercial centers and displayed cluster pattern of distribution. For industrial remised land price, the high level of price was mainly concentrated in HaiDian District whereas the medium level land price showed multiple sub central pattern of distribution. The study found that stochastic factors have little effects on the layout variance of land prices. It also found that there are remarkable neighboring interactions between each type of land prices, and the effective distance of neighboring interactions range from 7 79km to 47 03km. The findings have great values in guiding real estate investments and optimizing layouts of development projects.