减缓与适应:中国应对气候变化的成本收益分析

潜在的气候损害性是全球气候变暖的内禀特征,同时也是减排应对的根本目的。积极的减排行动一方面可以缓解可能的气候变化损害,带来环境正效益,另一方面也会引起相应的宏观经济成本。从成本-收益角度看,中国单边减排行动的经济性如何,适应在改善这一经济可行性方面又扮演着怎样的角色?这些问题的研究在气候变化形势日趋严峻且各国共同减排协议始终难以达成的背景下尤其重要。基于中国能源-经济-环境(3E)系统集成模型的成本-收益分析结果显示:中国单独排放控制行动的温控贡献十分有限,且付出的经济成本远大于其带来的气候损失对冲收益;提高气候适应能力是改善单独减排行动经济性的重要途径,且相比之下,适应在减少气候变化损失方面的效果更为显著。

Mitigation and Adaptation: Cost-benefit Analysis on Copping with Climate Change in China

Response to possible damage risk associated with climate change is the main task of emission control actions, which could effectively hedge against climate-related damage to some extent, while bring macro economic costs accordingly. Then, how is the economics of China''s unilateral emission control actions, and what is the role of adaptation? These are urgent problems to be addressed, especially when the climate change situation becomes increasingly serious and global mitigation cooperation gets difficult to reach. Our cost-benefit analysis results based on energy-economy-environment integrated (3E-integrated) model reveal that China''s unilateral emission controls contribute a little to constrain global temperature-rise, and the action cost is greatly larger than the avoided climate damage; besides, adaptation plays a formidable role in improving the economic feasibility of China''s unilateral emission controls.