市场化进程与对外直接投资的技术溢出效应

本文扩展新增长理论，建立了全要素生产率（TFP）内生于对外直接投资（ODI）和市场化程度的理论模型。通过中国2003-2012年的省际面板数据，实证研究在母国市场化进程中ODI对TFP的溢出效应。为了分析技术溢出的传导途径，利用DEA-Malmquist指数将TFP分解为技术水平变化、纯技术效率变化和规模效率变化三要素，测算了ODI对TFP及其三要素的边际效应。结果表明：第一，ODI与市场化对TFP的影响均显著为正；第二，ODI推动了技术进步，降低了规模效率，对纯技术效率的影响不显著；第三，ODI与市场化对TFP的影响具有互补性，随着市场化程度的加深，ODI对技术水平和纯技术效率的提升作用超过了对规模效率的降低作用，因此TFP提高。

Market-oriented transition and technology spillover effect of outward direct investment (ODI)

By expanding New Growth Theory, this paper establishes the theoretical model which makes TFP endogenously determined by ODI and marketization. Using China’s province-level panel data during 2003-2012, we empirically analyze the spillover effect of ODI on TFP under the process of China’s market-oriented transformation. In order to investigate the channels through which ODI influences TFP, we use DEA-Malmquist index to decompose TFP into three elements: technology level change (TC), pure technology efficiency change (PE) and scale efficiency change (SE); and further calculate the marginal effect of ODI on TFP and its elements. The empirical results reveal that: first, ODI and marketization significantly and positively impact TFP; second, ODI promotes TC, reduces SE, and has no significant effect on PE; third, as for the impact on TFP, the relationship between ODI and marketization is complementary. That is, with the deepening of marketization, the promoting effect of ODI on TC and PE exceeds the decreasing effect of ODI on SE, and further contributes the improvement of TFP.