安徽省农业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应研究

对安徽省1998-2013年农业碳排放量进行测算,利用改进的Kaya恒等式与LMDI法对碳排放的驱动因素进行分解,并分析农业碳排放与农业经济增长之间的脱钩情况。结果表明:效率因素和劳动力因素负向驱动农业碳排放,产出因素和结构效应则正向驱动碳排放;农业碳排放与农业经济增长从2006年以后实现脱钩,环境压力与经济增长之间的矛盾趋于缓和。因此,建议从改进农业生产技术、改革农业生产模式和改变农业生产结构三方面促进农业生产减排。

Driving Factors and Decoupling Effect of Agricultural Carbon Emission in Anhui Province

On the basis of measuring and calculating agricultural carbon emission in Anhui province from 1998 to 2013, the paper factorizes its driving factors with modified Kaya Identical Equation and LMDI and analyzes the decoupling effect between ag-ricultural carbon emission and agricultural economic increase.The result shows that efficiency factor and labor factor negatively drive agricultural carbon emission, whereas output factor and structural effect positively drive it; it is since 2006 that agricultural carbon emission has been decoupled from agricultural increase , with the result that the conflict between environmental pressure and economic increase mitigates.Therefore, improving agricultural production technology, reforming agricultural production models and transforming agricultural production patterns are proposed to promote carbon emission reduction in agricultural production .