| 2008年我国粮食、棉花和油料生产形势的分析预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨翠红,陈锡康.2008年我国粮食、棉花和油料生产形势的分析预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,23(1):23-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨翠红 陈锡康 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京,100080 |
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| 摘 要： | 如果不遇到严重的自然灾害,在天气中等或中等偏差的情况下,我们预测2008年我国粮食播种面积和产量仍将略增,棉花播种面积及产量与2007年持平或略有增加,油料播种面积将有较大幅度增长,如后期气候适宜,预计会实现较大幅度增产。文中最后提出了若干相关政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 系统综合因素预测法 投入占用产出技术 粮食 棉花和油料生产形势 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年12月27 |
Production Situation Analysis and Forecasting of China's Grain,Ccotton and Oil Bearing in 2008 |
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| Yang Cuihong and Chen Xikang.Production Situation Analysis and Forecasting of China's Grain,Ccotton and Oil Bearing in 2008[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008,23(1):23-29. |
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| Authors: | Yang Cuihong and Chen Xikang |
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| Institution: | Yang Cuihong Chen Xikang (Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS 100080 Beijing) |
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| Abstract: | According to our estimate, if there are no serious natural disasters, under a moderate or moderate-to-poor weather condition, both the sown area and the output of grain will slightly increase than 2007, those of cotton will maintain at the same level as 2007 or has a minor growth. The sown area of oil bearing, however, will go up by a large margin and realize a big increase in output if the weather is pleasant at its late growth stage. |
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| Keywords: | Systematic Integrated Prediction Approach Input-occupancy-output Technique Production Situation of Grain Cotton and Oil Bearing |
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