气候变化背景下人工造雪技术提升对中国滑雪季节长度的影响

在全球气候变暖背景下,人工造雪是滑雪场经营者有效应对气候变化的重要措施。本文假定人工造雪适宜温度由现有的-5℃提升到-2℃,基于气象站点观测数据（1981—2010年）和IPCC AR5的RCPs未来情景数据,通过改进的SkiSim 2.0模型评估气候变化背景下人工造雪技术提升对中国滑雪季节长度的影响。研究表明：①在气候变化背景下,人工造雪技术提升将使得中国平均滑雪季节长度增加3%~12%,即使在2080s时期最高温室气体排放情景下（RCP 8.5）,78%的滑雪场能拥有超过100 d的滑雪季节长度;②受气候变化影响越大的滑雪场（如华北、华东、华中）,人工造雪技术提升使其滑雪季节长度增加越多;而人工造雪技术提升对受气候变化影响小的滑雪场（如东北、西北）作用有限;③地理环境条件是影响滑雪季节长度的根本因素,无论人工造雪技术是否提升,气候变化背景下中国100 d滑雪季节长度的地理分界线均为长白山—阴山—祁连山—天山。为适应及减缓气候变化的潜在影响,相关部门应致力于提升人工造雪技术,从供给侧保证中国滑雪旅游产业的可持续发展。

Impact of snow-making technology improvement on ski season length in China under climate change

Under global warming conditions, artificial snowmaking has proved to be an effective adaptation measure to climate change for ski resorts. Based on the surface climate dataset (1981-2010) and new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) RCPs scenarios, this study assessed the impact of snow-making technology improvement (snow could be produced at -2℃ rather than -5℃) on ski season length in China under climate change using the SkiSim 2.0 model. The results show that average ski season length in China would increase by 3%~12% with improved snowmaking machine, and 78% of ski areas in China could maintain a ski season of over 100 days even under the RCP 8.5 scenario in the 2080s. Ski resorts that are highly affected by climate change (for example, north, east and central regions) would receive more benefits from new technology than slightly affected areas (for example, northeast and northwest). Furthermore, geographical environmental conditions are the fundamental factors that affect the length of ski season. No matter whether snow-making technology is improved or not, the dividing line for 100-day ski season in China under climate change is Changbai Mountain-Yinshan Mountain-Qilian Mountain-Tianshan Mountain. For mitigating and adapting to climate change, more attention should be paid to technological innovation in artificial snowmaking to ensure sustainable development of China’s ski industry from the supply side.