我国全民阅读调查分析与趋势预测

目的/意义] 针对中国新闻出版研究院开展的全民阅读调查存在数据滞后的缺点，通过数据预测分析结果，为文化、教育、新闻、出版等部门进行文化供给侧改革与规划设计提供依据和重要参考。方法/过程] 运用灰色预测模型，对2008-2014年全民阅读调查相关数据进行预测分析；经验证预测精度后，采用"新陈代谢灰色系统"改进模型再预测出2016-2023年相关数据。结果/结论] 将2015年预测值与2015年实际调查值相比较，证明预测精度为优，表明通过系列模型预测的相关数据具有可靠性、实用性和创新性，可达到为相关部门提供依据和参考的要求。

An Analysis and Trend Forecast of National Reading in China

Purpose/significance] In view of the shortcomings of the data read by the China Press and Publication Research Institute, the data are analyzed to get the results, which provides the basis and important reference for the cultural supply side reform and planning and designing among the culture, education, news, publishing and other departments.Method/process] In this paper, the gray forecasting model is used to predict and analyze the relevant data of the national reading survey from 2008 to 2014. After the accuracy of the forecasting, the model is improved by using the "metabolic gray system" model to predict the relevant data from 2016 to 2023.Result/conclusion] Comparing the forecast value with the actual survey value in 2015, it proves that the prediction accuracy is excellent, indicating that the relevant data predicted by the series models are reliable, practical and innovative, and it can provide the basis and reference for the relevant departments.