地方政府对土地财政依赖的影响因素研究

分析影响地方政府依赖土地财政的因素，有助于深入理解地方政府依赖土地财政的原因，从而为治理地方政府的土地财政依赖现象提供决策依据。本文首先从理论上阐释了财政、经济、政治、土地市场等方面的制度因素对地方政府依赖土地财政的影响机理，然后应用1998-2010年的省际面板数据进行实证检验。结果表明：地方政府对土地财政的依赖短期内存在显著的惯性依赖特征，但由于土地财政的不确定和不可持续，地方政府对土地财政的依赖在长期上存在收敛趋势。研究证实了分税制改革造成的地方财权与事权不匹配、地方政府资本竞争和二三产业的发展会显著增强地方政府对土地财政的依赖。土地出让方式的市场化改革显著提高了土地价格，是形成地方政府依赖土地财政的重要制度基础。而地方政府对征地和城市扩张的强烈动机，导致了城市边界的快速扩张，即土地城市化是地方政府获取土地财政的重要手段。

Factors Impacting Local Government Dependent on Land Finance According to Provincial-Level Panel Data from 1998 to 2010 in China

Multiple factors impact local government revenue dependence on land finance, such as financial factors, economics, political systems and land institutions. A full analysis of factors that impact land finance dependence will help us understand local government dependence on land finance and provide a reference for decision making in order to control this phenomenon. Combined with previous studies, we give a theoretical explanation of the mechanisms behind the institutional factors and an introduction of land market-oriented reforms and urban land expansion. Based on theoretical analysis, we conduct an empirical analysis using provincial-level panel data from 1998 to 2010. We found that local government revenue dependence on land finance reflects significant inertia dependence in the short-term, but due to the uncertainty and unsustainability of land finance, the degree of dependence displays convergence in the long-term. The increasing gap between local government revenue and expenditure due to tax-share reform, local governments' capital competition and the development of secondary and tertiary industries deepened local government revenue dependence on land finance. Our results also indicate that marketization reform of land transfer significantly improves land prices, thus the land transfer system is an important institutional basis for land financial dependence. Land urbanization is an important channel for local governments to obtain land finance because local governments have a strong incentive to expropriate land and expand the urban frontier.