Measuring the performances of politicians on social media and the correlation with major Latin American election results |
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| Institution: | 1. Departamento de Computação, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil;2. Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil;1. FSA ULaval, Université Laval, Pavillon Palasis-Prince, 2325 rue de la Terrasse, Quebec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada;1. Department of Organization, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Organization and Informatics Vara?din, Pavlinska 2, 42 000 Vara?din, Croatia;2. College of Arts and Sciences, Carlow University, 3333 Fifth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, United States;1. Nyenrode Business University, Department of Accounting, Auditing and Control, PO Box 130, 3620 AC Breukelen, Netherlands;2. SEO Amsterdam, Netherlands;3. Department of Economics and Management, Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands;4. Nyenrode Business University, Department of Accounting, Auditing and Control, Breukelen, Netherlands;5. Department of Spatial Economics, Free University, Amsterdam, Netherlands;1. Associate Professor and Director, School of Planning, Public Policy, and Management, University of Oregon, 263 Hendricks Hall, 1209 University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, United States of America;2. Associate Professor, School of Urban Affairs, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH 44115, United States of America;1. Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India;2. Bournemouth University Business School, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, BH8 8EB, UK;3. Faculty of Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500AE Enschede, the Netherlands. |
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| Abstract: | Contemporary social media (SM) has strongly impacted democratic practices. The success of presidential campaigns is frequently attributed to being highly correlated with the candidates' social media performance, but there is no well-established method to measure this performance. Thus, this study aims to improve the understanding of a politician's performance on SM and its correlation with electoral results. Applying a new, recently-defined set of metrics, based on Zajonc's exposition theory and considering the interactions of users on politicians' profiles in multiple SM platforms, this research identifies statistical correlations between SM performance and the votes received in multiple elections. As case studies, this paper focuses on the most recent presidential elections in the four most populous countries in Latin America: Argentina (2019), Brazil (2018), Colombia (2018), and Mexico (2018). Data from more than 65,000 posts were collected from the SM profiles of the main candidates on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, starting from 300 days before the election days, and correlations with electoral results were calculated. The results demonstrated strong correlations between the defined metrics and the votes received, particularly the engagement per post, although there were differences among countries. On the other hand, we observed that there is zero or negative correlation between the number of posts and the electoral results. |
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