食物综合生产能力地区间差异的定量评估——以河北省为例

我国历来较多关注食物中的粮食,而忽视畜产品、水产品等其它食物类型,使得在分析地区食物生产能力时出现较大的偏差。区域间的土地利用统筹问题得到前所未有的重视,加强对地区间食物生产能力差异研究很有必要。本文从各类食物的折算入手,以县为研究单元,从土地生产食物的现实能力、持续能力和潜力3个角度构建了一套完整的计算方法,旨在对各县的食物综合生产能力进行定量计算,其中现实生产能力、持续生产能力、产出潜力分别考虑的要素有单位食物生产用地的生产能力和食物生产用地变化指数,生产基础稳定性、生产能力稳定性和投入-产出能力,单位食物用地的食物生产潜力和食物用地的增长潜力。在此基础上,首先统一折算各类型食物为等谷量单位来计算各指标的具体值,并利用标准化方法将各指标值转换为可进行统一运算的标准值,然后对各指标赋予权重并计算而求得食物综合生产能力的评价值,最后根据其大小而划分为极高、高、中、低和极低等5个级别,以便于对结果进行分析。本文以河北省为例,对该方法进行了实证分析,结果显示,研究结论能得到较合理的解释,说明该方法具有推广和应用的可行性。

Quantitative Evaluation on Integrated Food Production Capacity of Land among Different Regions:A Case on Hebei Province

Traditionally, excessive emphasis on com and the ignorance of livestock and aquatic products have leaded to unreliable results when evaluating the food production capacity (FPC). An integrated arrangement of land use among different regions is an urgent need during the course of a new round of land use planning. To this end, the differences in FPC evaluation methods should be fully understood and incorporated in studies. On the other hand, the food production capacity studies primarily focus on FPC itself, without accounting for its continuity and potential, particularly their combinations because of the difficulties in quantifying its continuity and potential. Exclusion of any factor mentioned above would give rise to unreliable results. In the present study, a evaluation method was designed in which actual FPC (including the FPC per food land and change index of food land), its continuity (including basic condition' s stability and actual stability of FPC, and input-output capacity) and potential (including food production potential per food land and growth potential of mothball food land) were all considered based on the discount among all kinds of food and 'normal corn', and taking county as a calculation unit. Then several specific steps were taken in succession. First, all kinds of farm product (fresh weight) were converted to a normalized equivalent corn (dry weight) for readily analysis. Second, the concrete values of all indexes and their comparable values were calculated by means of standardization. Third, the resulting estimates of integrated food production capacity of land were calculated. Fourth, the evaluation values were classified as five grades: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. Last, for demonstrating the feasibility and reliability of the proposed methods, a case study on Hebei Province was performed. The results showed that the very high and high FPC counties primarily lie in the piedmont plain of the Taihang and Yanshan mountains and the vicinity of Shijiazhuang City, Tangshan City, Langfang City and Handan City. The moderate FPC counties are mainly distributed over the south of the Hebei plain. The low and very low FPC counties dominate the north of Hebei Province. The results were generally in accord with reality and the methodology was shown to be feasible. It was suggested that the very high and high FPC counties, moderate FPC counties and low and very low FPC counties serve China, Hebei Province and themselves respectively, so as to really achieve the overall goals of food security and sustainable development.