基于状态空间模型的日本碳排放影响因素分析及启示

气候变暖对日本的冲击非常大,因此日本政府一直非常重视碳减排问题。从20世纪70年代开始,日本政府出台了很多政策和法规,如环保积分制度、阳光计划等,取得了很好的效果,极大地推动了该国的低碳经济进程,这非常值得世界各国借鉴。本文基于日本的1966-2011年时间序列数据,利用状态空间模型,对日本碳排放的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,日本碳排放总量呈现波动式上升的趋势,人口规模、经济增长、技术进步与碳排放之间存在长期协整关系,是日本碳排放的主要影响因素。其中,人口规模对碳排放的影响弹性为负值,这主要归功于人均生活耗能的下降,从而抑制了碳排放,并且随着时间推移,抑制效应越来越明显;经济增长是日本碳排放的重要驱动因素,但随着时间推移,驱动效应逐渐减弱;技术进步能极大地缓解日本碳排放,并且随着时间推移,减排效应越来越显著。基于上述实证结论,在对日本经验做法进行总结的基础上,针对我国实际情况,提出简要政策建议,包括低碳技术开发和可再生能源利用补贴等,以更好地推动我国的碳减排。

Impact Factors Analysis and Inspiration Based on State Space Model of Japanese Carbon Emissions

Since the 1970s, the Japanese government has introduced many environmental policies and regulations to promote a low carbon economy. According to time series data from 1966-2011, we analyzed the impact of Japan's carbon emissions using a state space model. The results showed that carbon emissions showed a trend of fluctuation rising in Japan. There was a long-term cointegration relationship between population scale, economic growth, technological progress and carbon emissions. The population scale had a negative effect on carbon emissions, and it was mainly attributed to the decline of per capita energy consumption. Economic growth was the main driving factor of Japan's carbon emissions. Technological progress could greatly ease Japan's carbon emissions. Along with low carbon technology progress, and energy structure optimization, the carbon emissions reduction effect would become more remarkable. According to Japan's experience and the actual situation in China, we make several policy suggestions. The government should increase financial investment and subsidies for renewable energy and accelerate low carbon technology development through funding. Further, the government could control the maximum carbon emissions of one enterprise, and the carbon emissions permit could be traded between different enterprises. Last, the government should accelerate the construction of low-carbon cities.