基于ICCE-IC的中国产业发展及减排策略研究

从宏观层面综合评价某一国家或地区的产业碳排放及其影响力,系统地提出产业低碳经济发展策略,已经成为一项关键工作。本文在投入产出模型和生态投入产出模型的基础上,提出了产业碳排放影响力系数-产业影响力系数(ICCE-IC)矩阵理论,根据象限分布将产业划分为高排放/高影响、高排放/低影响、较高排放/高影响、较高排放/低影响、低排放/高影响、低排放/低影响6种类型,并分别界定低碳经济发展策略;利用我国2007年投入产出表和按行业分能源消费量,分析我国43个产业部门二氧化碳排放量的ICCE-IC组合矩阵分布结构,研究和探索既可降低碳排放、又能保持经济稳定增长的产业结构调整策略。

Industry Development and Carbon Emissions Reductions on the Basal of ICCE-IC Matrix in China

Macro and comprehensive evaluations of carbon emissions and industrial sectors in a country or region is important when developing an industrial strategy for low-carbon economic development. Here,an input-output model and ecological input-output model are absorbed to form the Combined Matrix of Influence Coefficient of Carbon Emission and Influence Coefficient (ICCE-IC Matrix),and the industry is plotted into six types: high emission/high-impact,high emission/low-impact,higher emission/high-impact,higher emission/low-impact,low emission/high-impact and low emission/low impact. Based on an input-output table for 2007 and Consumption of Energy by Sector for 2007,the distribution of various industrial sectors and the cumulative intensity of carbon emissions are computed. The ICCE-IC Matrix is also set up according to influence coefficients,influence coefficients of carbon emissions and embodied carbon emissions. According to the ICCE-IC Matrix,there are 14 industries belong to A,nine industries belong to B,and 28 industries belong to C. Fourteen industries are distributed in the I quadrant,four industries distributed in the II quadrant,seven industries separately distributed in the III and IV quadrant,two and nine industries separately distributed in the V and VI quadrant. Accordingly,five industries belong to high emission/high-impact,six industries belong to higher emission/high-impact,14 industries belong to low emission/high-impact,one industry belonged to high emission/low-impact,three industries belong to higher emission/low-impact,and 14 industries belong to low emission/low impact.