安徽省土地城镇化空间分异特征及驱动因素识别

科学度量土地城镇化的空间变化,实现人口、土地、产业三位一体的中国特色新型城镇化道路,是推动中国城镇化高质量发展的关键问题。本文运用经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关指数,探索分析安徽省土地城镇化的总体空间分布、空间分异格局及局部空间差异,借助R语言支持下的地理加权回归模型识别其驱动因素,为提升新型城镇化质量,协调区域发展提供决策参考。研究结果显示：① 安徽省土地城镇化水平区域差异明显,以铜陵、合肥、马鞍山、蚌埠、黄山、芜湖、淮南及滁州等地市的部分市辖区为核心,构成的高值集聚斑块日益凸显;以安徽省农产品主产区为核心,向四周渐进式扩展的环绕式空间结构则为低值区;② 省内土地城镇化水平存在空间关联性,局部空间分异显著;③ 土地城镇化受人口、产业、投资、产出等因素影响,影响强度呈区域差异特征,土地城镇化驱动类型可沿淮河分为以北地区的人口—投资驱动型及以南地区的人口—产业驱动型。

Spatial differential characteristics and driving factors of land urbanization in Anhui Province

Measuring the spatial change of land urbanization scientifically and achieving a new type of urbanization with Chinese characteristics by the trinity of population, land and industry, is the key question to promote the high-quality development of urbanization in China. We explored and analyzed the overall spatial distribution, spatial differentiation pattern and regional spatial disparities of land urbanization by using the spatial autocorrelation indicators adjusted by empirical bayes (EBI) in Anhui Province. And we adopted geographically weighted regression (GWR) supported by R to identify the driving factors, so that it can provide decision-making reference for promoting the quality of new urbanization and balancing the development between regions. We found: ①Regional difference of land urbanization is obvious in Anhui Province,high-value aggregation space form like patch was increasingly emerging with some stadsdistricts of Tongling、Hefei、Ma’anshan、Bengbu、Huangshan、Wuhu、Huainan and Chuzhou as the core. The circular spatial structure extending to the surrounding area was a low-value area with the main agricultural producing area as the core. ②The spatial correlation existed in the level of land urbanization in Anhui Province and local spatial differentiation was significant. ③In addition, land urbanization was affected by the population, industries, investment and output. The influence intensity was characterized by regional differences. Driving types of land urbanization along with Huaihe River could be classified as population-investment type in north of the river and population-industry type in south.