中国交通发展的能源消费与对策研究

本文通过建立能源消费分解模型,对1980-2001年交通能耗的因子贡献进行了测算。结果表明,服务量的增长是能源消费增长的主要驱动力,同时运输结构的变化加剧了这种增长,过去实现的能耗强度降低不足以抑制能源消费的增加,而近年来能耗强度更显示出增加的趋势,交通石油消费增长趋势不可避免。需要综合规划与布局,促进交通的可持续发展。

Energy Consumption of China''s Transport Development and Its Policy Implications

The energy consumption decomposition model was built and then applied with the data available from 1980-2001.The result shows that the dramatic growth in transportation service turnover is the main driving force,meanwhile the remarkable changes in transport structure also become an important impacting factor.While the existing decline in the energy intensity achieved in the sector has not been sufficient yet to restrain the growth of transport energy con-sump-tion,the recent increasing in energy intensity enhanced the growth trend more apparently.So the growth trend in oil consumption in transport sector seems unavoidable.And the transport sector should make integrated planning and optimized structure change in order to ensure its sustainable development.