期望收益、风险预期及农户宅基地退出行为——基于上海市松江区、金山区农户的实证分析

从宅基地退出过程中农户的期望收益及退出后的风险预期两个方面对宅基地退出行为进行分析,构建农户宅基地退出行为分析框架,运用二元Probit模型分析农民宅基地退出行为及其影响因素,为建立自愿、有偿的宅基地退出制度提供借鉴。研究结果显示:①农户的年龄、兼业时间、家庭年均收入均显著正向影响农户宅基地退出行为;宅基地块数对农户的宅基地退出行为具有负向显著影响;②期望收益的影响因素中,补偿金能够全部兑现,会促进农户做出退出宅基地的行为;农户认为补偿合理会推动农户的宅基地退出行为;宅基地退出后村集体获得的收益比重更小、农户获得的收益比重更大,会推动农户的宅基地退出行为;③风险预期因素中,退出宅基地后房屋面积减少,农户宅基地的财产性收入功能消失,面临着房屋价值降低的风险,阻碍了农户的宅基地退出行为;生活成本增加、宅基地退出后工作变得更不稳定,会抑制农户做出退出宅基地的行为。因此:宅基地退出过程中,补偿金能够全部兑现、补偿越合理、期望收益越高,将促进农户的宅基地退出行为;宅基地退出后面临的风险越高,将阻碍农户的宅基地退出行为。所以,政府在制定宅基地自愿、有偿退出制度时应充分考虑农户宅基地退出过程中的期望收益和退出后的风险。

Expected return,risk expectation and residential land quitting behavior among farmers in Songjiang and Jinshan Districts,Shanghai

We analyzed homestead exiting behavior,expected returns and the expecting risks using a binary Probit regression model and looking at farmers in Shanghai. Our goal was to provide a reference for establishing voluntary and compensatory homestead exiting systems. We found that the age of farmers,part-time months and annual household income significantly positively impact farmer residential quitting behavior. The plot number of residential land has a significant negative influence on farmer homestead quitting. Whether farmers can collect all compensation has a negative impact on farmers’ willingness to quit; if compensation can be given to farmers,farmers show greater willingness to withdraw from the homestead. When farmers consider compensation to be reasonable,they are more willing to withdraw from the household. Regarding risk,after withdrawing residential land and housing area reductions （which results in negative effect that the household land property income for farmers disappear）,when households face a risk of reducing the value of housing the willingness to quit weakens. When the cost of living increases,farmers’ jobs becoming more unstable and both of these factors negatively impact farmer behavior to withdraw from residential land. If compensation can be given to farmers and the compensation is reasonable,farmers share the expected return of the process of residential land quitting and are more willing to withdraw from residential land. However,the higher the risk associated with quitting residential land,the less willing farmers are to quitting. Farmers are more willing to keep the original homestead and production methods in order to reduce risk. Therefore,the government should consider the farmers’ expected returns and risks during the process of residential quitting.