种植结构调整对中国饲料粮供需及畜禽养殖的影响

加快种植结构合理调整对稳定饲料粮市场供需、推动畜牧业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于2000—2020年饲料粮及畜禽养殖基础数据，通过构建局部均衡模型预测饲料粮及畜禽养殖未来走势，并模拟“粮改饲”等种植结构调整政策对饲料粮供需及畜禽养殖的影响。研究表明：①正常情况下，中国饲料粮供需总体保持增长，但饲料粮产量呈现下滑态势，国内饲料粮供给需依靠进口补充。2025年中国饲料粮供给将达到3.36亿t，其中国内产量2.09亿t，进口1.27亿t，出口23.10万t；畜禽养殖规模将达到42.45亿个羊单位，畜禽养殖饲料粮需求将达到3.06亿t；饲料粮价格将涨至3.04元/kg。②“粮改饲”政策实施仍具可行性和必要性，继续调减饲料粮种植面积对畜禽养殖规模增长的推动作用要强于扩大饲料粮种植面积的作用。“粮改饲”政策实施推动饲料粮产量下滑，助推畜禽养殖规模持续扩大，使饲料粮进口保持增长，同时推升饲料粮价格上涨。若“粮改饲”政策以畜禽养殖规模增长为目标，“十四五”时期继续保持较大调减规模更合适，同时可考虑加大粮饲兼用型玉米种植支持力度。研究结论可为“粮改饲”等种植结构调整方案设计、夯实畜禽养殖饲料饲草安全基石提供支撑。

Impact of planting structure adjustment on the feed grain market and livestock breeding of China

It is important to accelerate the reasonable adjustment of planting structure to stabilize the market supply and demand of feed grains, and promote the high-quality development of livestock industry. Based on the feed grain and livestock data from 2000 to 2020, a partial equilibrium model was constructed to predict the future trends of feed grain and livestock breeding and to simulate the impact of the adjustment policies of the planting structure, such as “grain to feed” crop conversion, on the demand and supply of feed grains and livestock. The results show that: (1) Under normal conditions, the supply and demand of China’s feed grains will continue to increase; however, feed grain yields exhibit a declining trend. The supply of domestic feed grain needs to be supplemented by imports. By 2025, China’s feed grain supply is expected to reach 336 million tons, of which domestic output, imports, and exports will account for 209 million, 127 million, and 231 thousand tons, respectively; the scale of livestock breeding is expected to reach 4.25 billion sheep units. The demand for feed grains is expected to reach 306 million tons, and the price of feed grains is expected to rise to RMB 3.04 yuan/kg. (2) The implementation of the “grain to feed” policy is still feasible. Furthermore, the promotion effect of the continuous reduction of the acreage of feed grains on the growth of the scale of livestock breeding is more significant than that of expanding the acreage of feed grains. The implementation of the “grain to feed” policy has decreased the output of feed grain, an effect that has contributed to the continuous expansion of the livestock breeding scale, resulting in the growth of feed grain imports while increasing the price of feed grain. If the “grain to feed” policy aims to increase the livestock breeding scale, it would be more appropriate to maintain a relatively large reduction area during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. However, increasing the support for planting grain and forage maize could be considered. The research results can provide support for the design of planting structure adjustment programs and consolidate the foundation of feed grain and forage safety for livestock breeding.